Saturday, October 1, 2011

Eastman Kodak, Looking for a Dead Cat Bounce Monday

Sept. 30, 2011 NYSE: EK

Top Mutual Fund Holders

Holder Shares % Out Value Reported
Legg Mason Capital Management Opportunity Trust Fd 17,260,000 6.42 61,790,800 Jun 30, 2011
VANGUARD/PRIMECAP FUND 6,000,000 2.23 19,380,000 Mar 31, 2011
FIDELITY VALUE FUND 4,387,838 1.63 15,708,460 Jun 30, 2011
VANGUARD SMALL-CAP INDEX FUND 4,115,676 1.53 13,293,633 Mar 31, 2011
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FD 3,204,443 1.19 7,690,663 Jul 31, 2011
VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET INDEX FUND 2,892,652 1.08 9,343,265 Mar 31, 2011
VANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTH INDEX FUND 2,788,908 1.04 9,008,172 Mar 31, 2011
ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX FD 2,471,815 0.92 5,932,356 Jul 31, 2011
FIDELITY ADVISOR HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE FD 2,000,000 0.74 5,560,000 Apr 30, 2011
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX FD 1,914,966 0.71 4,595,918 Jul 31, 2011


Conventional wisdom holds that institutional investors, particularly mutual funds, automatically unload all holdings of stocks trading below $5 a share. As a result, finance executives may worry that wholesale institutional selling could put further pressure on a teetering share price. If a stock lingers too long at that level, sell-side analysts may drop their coverage, making it even harder bring a company to investors' attention.


Although it's true that many institutions will not hold stocks trading below $5 a share, this is not universal. Many investors regard a good-quality company trading at a low share price as a buying opportunity. For the company, the trick is to stay on the radar screen of the appropriate investors and to keep the communication flowing. This can be a rough task, of course, when staffing is tight and resources in the investor-relations department are already stretched to the limit.

Why Is the $5 Level Important?

Although it might seem arbitrary, investors consider the $5 level important for several very specific reasons:

  • Most initial listing requirements include a minimum bid of $5 a share. This applies to the Nasdaq National Market and the regional stock exchanges, though not to the New York Stock Exchange.

  • The official SEC definition of a "penny stock" is an equity trading for less than $5 a share that is not traded on the listed markets of the NYSE, Amex, or Nasdaq, but on the bulletin board or the pink sheets. Many — but certainly not all — of the companies listed on the OTCBB and pink sheets are not particularly transparent in their business and reporting practices, have a higher likelihood of filing for bankruptcy, or may otherwise be much riskier and less liquid than listed stocks. This is one reason that a NYSE or Nasdaq listing is prized — it's considered by many investors to signify "legitimacy."

  • It is more difficult to short stocks trading below $5 a share, since price is one of the factors the SEC uses to determine a stock's riskiness. As a rule of thumb — though this is just one criterion — stocks trading below $5 are "not marginable" and therefore not eligible to borrow or sell short.

  • Typically, liquidity decreases and volatility increases for stocks trading under the $5-a-share threshold. However, this may be a self-fulfilling prophecy: if institutional investors won't hold the stocks, liquidity would fall as a direct effect, and volatility would rise.

  • Many brokerages explicitly forbid (or at least strongly discourage) trading in speculative stocks, including penny stocks. Often customers must sign extra paperwork acknowledging that they are aware of the risks of buying these stocks. The NASD also has conduct rules specifying that recommendations to customers must be "suitable" for a customer. Therefore, for certain customers, deliberately buying or recommending speculative stocks would be considered irresponsible.
Mutual funds draft their own charters, and some choose to avoid stocks under $5 a share. However, they are not obligated to do so, except for fiduciary reasons. Many mutual funds specify that they will hold only stocks listed on the NYSE or the Nasdaq National Market. Furthermore, unless the fund explicitly specializes in small-cap/high-risk shares, holding penny stocks may be bad for business because they are perceived as an unwarranted financial risk for investors.

So where's the value in these managed funds? The index funds hold it because it's part of an index, and that's what you have to do. But how about Legg Mason? What's their excuse going to be, assuming they didn't get out before this occurred (and they might have - we'll see soon enough as the new reports should be out soon.)


I would argue that active management, through its demonstrated inability to stay ahead of these things, is worthless.


Either do your own work, hold indices, or don't play at all.

Kodak is a company that lost every advantage they ever had. Once the king of the photography world when technology shredded their primary product lines they failed to respond in an effective and useful manner and give up opportunity after opportunity.


Betting on a turn-around is one thing, but if you're going to do it you have to keep close tab on what you're doing, so you don't get caught holding the bag -- especially in the sort of size that appears to be represented here.


Best of luck, longs.